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直播进行中——以太坊为何可能临近重大转折点

本轮周期以太坊表现欠佳，投资者正追问核心问题：ETH是错过了本轮周期，还是存在更深层的因素？@JustDeauIt将与@RyanSAdams共同解析以太坊当前所处的市场周期位置，阐释其关键指标如何指向ETH正进入公允价值区间，并探讨真正的宏观底部是否仍未到来。

他们还将剖析以太坊在基本面改善的情况下为何仍举步维艰。迈克阐释了以太坊L2路线图如何在增强网络性能的同时削弱资产本身的短期价值捕获能力，并揭示其关注的信号（MVRV、盈利供应量、200周移动平均线）以期捕捉下一轮扩张周期。 #eth #l2

https://x.com/Bankless/status/2031701680191078644?s=20

中文 English

0:00 无银行国度，今天我们来关注以太坊，这个资产。

0:07 ETH目前处于周期的哪个阶段？

0:09 我最喜欢的周期投资者，Michael NATO，来自DeFi报告，今天做客播客。

0:14 今天。

0:14 我们每个月在无银行播客上做一期，这次我请Mike

0:19 准备一些

0:19 关于ETH持有者的信息。

0:24 Mike和我聊过很多比特币的公允价值指标，比如

0:28 周线移动平均

0:29 和MVRV，所有指标，我们看过很多比特币的图表。

0:33 比特币。

0:34 但ETH有自己的周期，既与更广泛的加密周期相关，也

0:40 独立于

0:41 比特币。

0:43 那么，Mike的数据对于未来几个月ETH价格有何预示？

0:47 我想知道他是否认为已经见底。

0:50 如果没见底，什么时候会见底？

0:53 ETH是Mike在上个周期持有的三大资产之一。

0:56 我知道他持有一些，他计划买更多吗？

1:00 如果是，什么时候？

1:02 我得说明，和无银行的许多嘉宾不同，Mike不是ETH永久多头。

1:07 他曾多次看多ETH，

1:07 但他更中立地看待这件事，也就是说，链上基本面到底说了什么

1:11 。

1:12 这资产？

1:18 Mike，很高兴你来。

1:19 我知道比特币是你最喜欢的资产。

1:21 历史上，ETH一直是第二名，或许不是很紧随其后，

1:24 但绝对是第二名。

1:29 ETH还是你在加密里第二喜欢的资产吗？

1:29 还是说这轮周期里它得再次证明自己？

1:32 监听者，Ryan。

1:36 嘿，Ryan。

1:37 嗯，很高兴在这里。

1:38 这是个很好的开场问题。

1:43 我认为，比特币是我们希望投资组合的锚点，我们曾有更看多

1:47 ETH的时期，

1:47 也有不那么看多ETH的时期，我们目前仍持有一些ETH。

1:51 我喜欢加密市场

1:52 的周期性和这种四年左右的特性，我们每隔一段时间就能重新验证

1:57 对比特币、ETH及其他资产的投资假设。

2:03 就像

2:03 对ETH这些年来发生的事情进行分析，了解我们现在处于周期的什么位置。

2:07 我们是在见底吗？

2:07 我很期待这次讨论。

2:13 回答你的问题，

2:14 ETH还需要证明自己，等会我会详细说说我关注的点。

2:15 总结就是，ETH这轮周期有机会证明自己，重新被纳入DeFi报告投资组合。

2:19 在进入正题之前，

2:20 我要感谢Galaxy的赞助。

2:24 这条给机构投资者，

2:25 无论你关注金融未来还是下一次工业革命的骨干——人工智能。

2:28 Galaxy是你必须了解的。

2:29 他们是全球领先者，不仅在加密资产和数字资产领域，

2:31 也在AI数据基础设施领域。

2:34 股票代码是GLXY。

2:38 他们有一系列加密产品，包括下一代机构级

2:40 培训、托管和代币化，还有Helios站点，

2:43 这是一个拥有16.0兆瓦电力的AI数据中心。

2:48 如果你想了解Galaxy如何帮助机构级客户在加密和AI投资、构建和转型，

2:51 可以去看看他们，链接在节目说明里。

2:54 好了，Mike，进入正题，ETH价格刚好徘徊在2000美元上方，

2:58 在这轮熊市中仍旧坚挺。

3:02 我想回顾一下ETH三轮周期的历史。

3:07 它没有比特币历史那么悠久，

3:08 但有大约10年时间了。

3:10 到目前为止，ETH经历了三个周期的爆发与崩溃。

3:17 第一次是2017年。

3:18 2016年底左右周期低点，ETH价格8美元，

3:25 想象一下，那时的峰值不是2000，而是8美元，2017年达到顶峰，

3:32 2018年1月，ETH从8美元涨到1400美元。

3:40 这是惊人的增长，

3:41 第一周期增长了175倍。

3:44 记住，第一周期175倍，第二周期在2021年。

3:51 第二周期我们看到61倍涨幅，约6000%。

3:57 低点在2018年12月，当时价格80美元。

4:02 2021年11月达到顶峰4878美元。

4:08 所以第二周期增长了61倍。

4:14 谈谈最近一次标志性周期，结束于2025年。

4:18 2022年6月，低点881美元，本周期最高点4953美元。

4:26 顶峰几乎是上周期的历史新高。

4:30 本周期涨幅不是175倍，也不是61倍，而是5.6倍。

4:38 远小于前两个周期。

4:40 所以当前很多加密和ETH投资者都在问，

4:43 这是ETH跳过了一个周期，还是新常态？

4:48 这水平相较前期周期表现明显减弱。

4:53 是现阶段正常，还是因为这周期不利于ETH，

4:55 未来会更好？

4:58 这是很大的问题，很有意思的观点，关于近三个周期的收益递减。

5:02 如果你放大看图表，可以看出基数在上升，这很健康。

5:07 但前三个周期的大涨幅非常巨大，

5:09 而最新周期大部分时间都在2021和2022那建立的价格区间内震荡，

5:15 这很特别。

5:17 这对ETH来说是独一无二的。

5:21 大多数资产在经历2017、2021比特币大涨后，

5:26 不是再没回来，

5:28 就是有第三个大涨峰值。

5:31 ETH既没有这两种情况，

5:34 停留在中间区域，这意味着它在过去五年里不断更替持有者。

5:38 今年还稍微创了点新高，目前价格和四五年前差不多。

5:43 这到底是利好还是利空？我想我们得看2021-2022年以太坊在路线图、

5:48 用户和基本面方面处于什么阶段。

5:52 网络效应、开发者、稳定币及工具等方面都进步了，

5:56 但价格没体现出来。

5:58 我觉得ETH这次表现不佳很大程度上是Layer 2路线图的原因。

6:04 或许你还记得，我们有个以太坊投资框架，每季度发布一次，

6:09 尝试说明ETH路线图如何影响链上经济学。

6:12 我们正确预测到L2路线图会降低L1层的价值捕获。

6:16 但没料到市场对此的反应。

6:21 以太坊通过L2扩展自己让产品更适合L2用户，

6:24 但近乎牺牲了自身的短期利益。

6:28 关键问题是这套L2路线图最终会成真吗？

6:33 Robinhood、Coinbase以及传统金融

6:34 是否会推出真正有大量用户的L2应用，从中创造价值分成，

6:38 从而使L1受益，提升网络健康和质押收益？

6:41 事实并非如此。

6:43 这也是以太坊在过去牛市中表现失望的关键原因。

6:48 你的解释是以太坊路线图决策导致ETH价格跳过一个周期？

6:53 对，下一周期是否回归更多看涨还待定。

6:57 这周期表现疲软是因为L2扩展不如预期、费用没有进入ETH资产，

7:03 市场对L2路线图的看法是

7:05 对单个L2链来说可能还好，但不利于ETH资产。

7:09 这个策略从2025年开始转变，并在2026年加速，

7:14 以太坊路线图重新聚焦L1层扩展，同时L2作为辅线。

7:19 可能大家已经吸取了经验，

7:20 L2路线图让ETH本周期表现不佳，但接下来如果能坚持L1扩展，

7:26 ETH将有机会超额收益。

7:27 这个故事你怎么看？

7:30 我同意，我以前对L2路线图非常看好，特别是在2022至2023年乐观情绪兴起时，

7:34 当时 optimism 正式发布，接着是Arbitrum，这些项目的代币在熊市里表现还不错。

7:38 大家都期待大部分应用部署在这些L2上，主流DeFi项目也都部署了。

7:43 但实际上没见到新爆款应用。

7:45 只是Uniswap和其他一些流行的DeFi项目搬到了L2。

7:49 而且L2间需要融合，流畅的跨链桥体验也没兑现。

7:54 这些都成了问题。

7:58 期间Solana的回归也抢走了一些类似2021周期中以太坊的投机热度，

8:01 部分原因是以太坊上的费用太高。

8:05 所以这是多个因素的综合作用。

8:09 但整体来看，这图表显示以太坊仍在建立一个长期的、健康的底层基础。

8:13 从总价值锁定（TVL）和其他指标看，目前水平在合理区间，也有上涨趋势。

8:17 投资者可以从宏观角度理解，以太坊正处于积累和更替阶段。

8:22 我认为这是积极信号。

8:26 接下来我想谈谈市场如何估值以太坊资产。

8:29 这话题，虽然听起来很简单，实际上很复杂。

8:33 我打开了ethval.com，这个网站综合了多种热门且有数据支持的估值方法。

8:38 我们讨论的是独立于以太坊网络表现和路线图的资产估值。

8:43 主要是基于网络成功，投资人该如何判断ETH的公允价格，

8:44 基本指标包括三类。

8:48 第一类是视ETH为货币资产，类似比特币或黄金。

8:50 作为无主权、无发行者的价值储藏，拥有稀缺性故事，

8:55 虽与比特币稀缺性不同，但同样形成价值认同。

8:58 价格上涨缘于其作为独立于法定体系的价值储藏工具的信念。

9:01 这是一组估值指标。

9:04 另一组则关注以太坊网络收取的费用。

9:05 可以将这些费用视为网络的“税收”，这部分费用分配给持币质押者。

9:09 因此存在实际现金流，类似股票的价格销售比或费用收益率。

9:13 可依据流向质押者的现金流进行估值，类似技术股的折现现金流模型。

9:17 第三类则将以太坊视为经济体和生态网络。

9:20 基于生态上所有资产、稳定币和代币的总价值锁定（TVL），

9:23 计算相应倍数，历史观察价格对网络价值的反应，

9:28 推演价格变化趋势。

9:29 相关的网络机制会考虑Metcalfe定律等，

9:32 认为ETH价格与以太坊经济及生态资产规模成正比。

9:37 这三类指标构成了ETH估值框架。

9:41 很有趣的是这三类指标的估值差距极大。

9:44 基于过去365天的L1和Blob费用收入计算的价格销售比，

9:46 资产价值约2美元。

9:48 而基于生态系统结算和存储价值指标的估值可达2.4万美元。

9:51 两者差别巨大，2美元对比24,000美元。

9:54 市场当前实价约2,000美元。

9:58 这说明市场仍在摸索该用什么标准来估值。

10:03 它是科技股吗？

10:05 还是网络经济模型？

10:07 或价值储藏？

10:09 或许价格体现了市场对指标应用的不确定。

10:13 你怎么看ETH资产？

10:14 你觉得哪些指标适合估值它？

10:17 这是个好问题，Ryan。

10:21 价格销售比在2021年时以太坊现金流稳定，那时没有L2，

10:25 但每个用户都在L1，拥堵严重。

10:28 当时能做DCF，数据也支持估值，

10:31 但自那以后情况变化很多，

10:34 因技术升级和以太坊扩容路线图调整。

10:38 我们认为L1应视作国家，代币是货币，网络提供服务和规则，

10:44 对用户收费，用户用代币付费买服务。

10:48 这模型非常贴切，

10:50 是我喜欢的估值方法。

10:53 至于最重要的估值指标，有几个重点。

10:57 我重视代币经济学，ETH在发币和现金流方面表现强劲，

11:01 当前通胀率低于比特币。

11:03 代币经济学稳健。

11:07 还可以看TVL和GDP，链上经济价值如何。

11:11 ETH市值大约2500亿美元，

11:14 上面有约1800亿美元的稳定币，

11:16 加上其他TVL，价值远超市值，这是另一估值角度。

11:20 我综合现金流、代币经济与链上基本面这三点，

11:24 从国家货币模型角度看优劣。

11:29 ETH传统估值一般相对比特币，市场尚未统一核心估值标准，

11:33 受不确定环境影响，通胀难降、地缘风险上升，资金快速在加密、

11:38 大宗商品、股市、货币间快速流动。

11:43 BitGet打造了通用交易平台，支持这些需求。

11:46 新升级后，trad-fi有单独标签，一键访问股票、黄金、外汇等全球市场，

11:51 都在同一平台，无需切换。

11:54 股票合约可享90%手续费折扣，

11:56 黄金白银免燃烧费，

11:58 一款App、一账号。

12:00 传统资产和加密资产并列，体验统一快捷。

12:04 市场波动下，BitGet为快速反应而生，

12:07 如你适应变化，BitGet专为你设计。

12:10 一处起步交易加密和trad-fi，链接在节目说明。

12:12 这不是投资建议。

12:14 Galaxy融合数字资产和下一代基础设施，服务机构全流程，

12:18 是领先机构平台，提供现货、衍生品、

12:20 结构化产品、DeFi借贷、投行和融资服务。

12:23 拥有1600多个交易对手，助力机构把控市场周期。

12:26 同时支持长期投资者，

12:28 提供主动管理策略、机构级评级和区块链基础设施。

12:30 规模庞大。

12:33 平台资产超120亿美元，2025年底贷款余额平均18亿美元，

12:38 体现生态系统深度信任。

12:41 此外，Galaxy为AI未来建设基础设施。

12:44 其Helios数据中心专为AI和高性能计算打造，

12:47 拥有超过16兆瓦电力容量，

12:48 是同类中规模最大的场所之一。

12:52 从全球市场到AI数据中心，

12:54 Galaxy全方位服务数字资产生态。

12:55 [email protected]/bankless 或点击节目说明中的链接。

12:59 我觉得你抓住了国家模型的精髓，历史上不同国家都有过

13:02 拥有“过度特权”，

13:05 使其货币被其他国家用作价值储藏及交换媒介。

13:08 美国显然是目前最典型的例子。

13:13 那么，哪些区块链会被赋予这样的特权，哪些不会？

13:17 比特币曾获得这样的青睐。

13:19 会不会是唯一的？

13:22 会不会有更多？

13:25 但国家模型的估值框架很契合这类思路，即使是在价值储藏的视角。

13:30 是的，我也这样认为。

13:33 作为加密分析师，我一直关注数据，深挖价格走势背后的驱动因素。

13:37 我相信未来我们会确立新的估值标准，

13:39 而且还处于监管之前。

13:42 随着立法通过，市场会更开放给传统金融。

13:45 届时会有更多加密本土分析师提出框架，

13:48 而非传统金融分析师。

13:49 现在要耐心等待。

13:51 这些网络继续被采纳，数据和基本面不断积累，

13:53 市场必将收敛到标准估值方法。

13:55 下面讲一些我看过的基本面数据，比如以太坊收入。

13:59 这是L2路线图产生的影响。

14:01 2024年初，数据上传blob机制开启，

14:04 使L2加载成本下降，导致以太坊L1费用显著减少。

14:09 一部分用户转到L2，不再贡献L1费用。

14:13 这就是以太坊自我颠覆。

14:16 软件行业常见这种现象，比如亚马逊曾大量亏损以扩大网络效应。

14:19 以太坊改善了产品体验，但短期价值捕获减少。

14:22 未来仍可能增加价值捕获。

14:25 这反映在费率大幅下降，但ETH仍被估值超过2000美元。

14:29 这说明市场看到价格未体现的其它价值。

14:33 很可能费用再也回不到2022年的高位，

14:35 因为随着L1和L2链空间扩展，供给增加，

14:39 除非需求超过新增供给，

14:41 费用将长期维持低位。

14:43 这不正是路线图的目标吗？

14:46 意图实现廉价交易，费率收入不是资产全部价值体现。

14:50 比特币手续费几乎为零，但估值依然很高。

14:53 所以仅看手续费收入来判别价值是不全面的。

14:57 我同意这一点，ETH网络有1800亿美元稳定币，市场估值2300至2500亿美元，

15:02 说明基本面不止是费用，还得看TVL等其它方面。

15:06 关于费用下降对质押收益的影响，图表显示，

15:10 2022年底，ETH质押收益曾超过5%，

15:13 来自网络通胀、MEV和优先费用的复合收益。

15:16 升级后收益来源几乎全部靠通胀发行。

15:20 现在约90%质押收益是新发币补偿，

15:22 通胀率仍低于1%，能维持网络安全。

15:27 虽然投资者希望获得超过3%的收益，但目前情况尚可。

15:30 质押者不会因此退出网络。

15:33 年度发行量大约0.6%至0.83%，与比特币相近。

15:37 能在低手续费环境维持通胀和网络激励平衡，是以太坊的独特优势。

15:42 至于去中心化交易所（DEX）交易量如何影响ETH价值，

15:46 链上资产流动速度非常重要，这驱动了网络经济学。

15:49 Solana的DEX成交量比以太坊高，说明其高频交互属性，

15:53 而以太坊更偏向于慢速高品质DeFi资产。

15:59 Ethereum上的稳定币供应持续增长，超过1800亿美元，

16:03 占据加密市场绝大部分稳定币份额。

16:07 虽然价格未完全体现，但这对未来价格是利好信号。

16:10 尤其是在持续的熊市环境下表现稳健。

16:13 稳定币总额若超过ETH市场价值，是否意味着低估？

16:18 市场尚未明确答案。

16:22 接着聊聊你用的公平价值指标，

16:26 这与传统估值指标略有不同。

16:30 你偏好用已实现价值、MVRV、持币鲸鱼行为等链上数据判断。

16:33 鲸鱼买入还是卖出？我们处于哪个周期阶段？

16:36 这些是你在DeFi报告中知名的周期指标。

16:41 ETH当前的周期指标如何？

16:44 它们告诉我们ETH处于这轮熊市的什么阶段？

16:47 挺有趣的。

16:48 我们比较了最近两轮熊市周期指标，

16:53 包括市场价值和已实现价值等。

16:56 虽然ETH上链行为较比特币更复杂导致指标不是那么精确，但总体指标提供了信号。

17:03 目前MV比约0.84，低于1，

17:05 比特币该指标约为1.26，表明ETH处于周期低点区域。

17:10 利润持有比例仅约39%，低于2022年水平。

17:14 ETH/BTC比率在2025年4月创下周期低点，显示超卖。

17:20 ETH也曾在上个周期跌破200周移动均线，目前价格低于2022年低点。

17:24 整体来看，ETH处于公允价值区域。

17:27 可能会在2026年见到更多波动和风险，也可能ETH先于比特币见底。

17:31 这两种情况都有可能。

17:34 如果按公平价值指标评估，ETH公允价值区间和深度价值区间分别如何？

17:39 上个周期低点约900美元左右，形成公平价值底。

17:44 深度价值或许在1500美元左右，甚至更低，

17:48 目前价格在2000美元，属于公允价值的上沿。

17:53 熊市历史上约一年结束，我预计本周期也如此。

17:57 宏观环境复杂，存在通胀压力，增长预期放缓，

18:00 有滞涨风险，联储可能紧急降息，这对ETH和整个市场有利。

18:04 现阶段我们处于风险偏好逐步回暖状态。

18:07 在公允价值区间进行资产选择，

18:10 重点在于寻找有基础面和估值优势的资产，预期未来超越比特币。

18:14 你主要目前在风险偏好开启阶段，先投比特币，

18:17 周期后段再逐步配置以太坊等资产，

18:20 你的估计价格和区间大概如此？

18:23 准确，深度价值约1500美元以下，公允价值上限在2000美元附近。

18:27 目前ETH在大约2,000美元左右的合理区间，

18:31 我们看到市场波动，等待下一个周期选择合适资产。

18:36 好的，我们差不多就这些。

18:39 无银行听众朋友，Mike和我每月聊一次，

18:41 每周会更新最新分析，节目在DeFi报告。

18:44 没订阅的可以去订阅，Spotify、YouTube上都能找到。

18:48 链接在节目说明。

18:50 马上录新一期，可能你听到的就是最新内容。

18:53 Mike，明天新播出的主题是什么？

18:55 我会讲比特币网络健康检查。

18:58 详细讨论安全预算、量子计算等长远问题。

19:02 此外，TDR Pro正在免费开放一个月给无银行听众，

19:06 价格低廉，像Netflix会员费一样。

19:10 能访问Mike的投资组合，他目前大约40%加密资产，60%现金。

19:14 每周拿到研究报告、数据仪表盘和资产监测列表。

19:17 很像投资者日志形式，还会及时推送买卖机会。

19:21 大家可以在节目说明点击链接了解详情。

19:26 订阅后，你也能收到买入信号，非常实用。

19:29 没错，这不构成投资建议。

19:31 加密资产风险大，投资需谨慎。

19:33 但这是一场新纪元的西部拓荒。

19:36 不适合所有人，但很高兴你选择了无银行之旅。

19:39 感谢收听。

19:42 [音乐]

0:00 Bankless Nation, today we're going to check in on Ether, the asset.

0:07 Where is ETH in the cycle?

0:09 My favorite cycle investor, Michael NATO, from the DeFi reports on the podcast

0:14 today.

0:14 We do these episodes on the Bankless feed every month, and this one, I asked

0:19 Mike to

0:19 prepare little information for the ETH holders among us.

0:24 Mike and I have talked a lot about fair market value metrics for Bitcoin, the

0:28 weekly moving

0:29 averages and VR, the all of the metrics, we've looked at many charts about

0:33 Bitcoin.

0:34 But ETH has its own cycle that is related to the broader crypto cycle, yet also

0:40 independent

0:41 of Bitcoin.

0:43 So what do Mike's numbers say about ETH price in the months to come?

0:47 I want to know if he thinks it's bottomed.

0:50 If not, when is it going to bottom?

0:53 ETH is one of three assets that Mike has held from the last cycle.

0:56 So I know he owns some, is he planning to buy more?

1:00 If so, when?

1:02 Now, I should qualify, unlike many guests on Bankless, Mike is not an ETH perm

1:07 able.

1:07 His bullish ETH has been bullish ETH various times, but he's looking at this

1:11 from a fairly

1:12 neutral perspective, that is, what do the on-chain fundamentals actually say

1:18 for this

1:18 asset?

1:19 Mike, it's great to have you.

1:21 I know Bitcoin is your favorite asset.

1:24 Historically, ETH has been a second, maybe not a close second, but definitely a

1:29 second.

1:29 Is ETH still your second favorite asset in crypto?

1:32 Or does this cycle, does it have to prove itself once again in this cycle?

1:36 Hey, Ryan.

1:37 Yeah, great, great to be here.

1:38 And that's a great question, I think, to lead in here.

1:43 I would say that the way I think of this is I think of Bitcoin as sort of a

1:47 thing that

1:47 we want to anchor our portfolio in, we've had periods where we were more

1:51 bullish on ETH,

1:52 less bullish on ETH, we still own some ETH currently in our portfolio.

1:57 And one of the things that I like about the cyclicality of the crypto markets

2:03 and just

2:03 kind of like the sort of four-year nature of these markets is that we get a

2:07 chance to

2:07 kind of like underwrite our thesis for Bitcoin, for ETH, for other assets that

2:13 we may want

2:14 to invest in.

2:15 I think this episode today is kind of an opportunity to kind of go back and

2:19 sort of analyze like

2:20 just high level, like what has happened with ETH over these last few years, you

2:24 know,

2:25 where are we going and kind of get into some of the kind of like where are we

2:28 at in the

2:29 cycle?

2:30 Are we bottoming right now?

2:31 So yeah, excited to get into it.

2:32 But I would say to answer the question, ETH has to prove itself to me, like we

2:37 can kind

2:37 of get into what I'm looking for in this episode.

2:40 All right, so ETH has an opportunity to prove itself to Mike this cycle in

2:44 order for him

2:45 to re-underwrite whether it should be included in the DeFi report portfolio.

2:51 Before we get into this episode, I want to thank our friends and sponsors over

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3:40 There's a link in the show notes.

3:41 All right, Mike, as we enter this episode, ETH price is just hovering above 2K.

3:47 So it's hanging in there in this bear market.

3:51 I actually want to go back and talk about the history of ETH across the three

3:56 cycles

3:57 that it's been around.

3:58 So it hasn't been around as long as Bitcoin, but it's been around for a while.

4:02 You've got 10 years or so clocking in.

4:04 So there's been three cycles that ETH has, you know, boomed and then busted so

4:10 far.

4:11 The first was 2017.

4:13 And the bottom of that cycle, you know, sometime in late 2016, ETH was $8.

4:20 So just imagine that not 2K, but $8 in 2017 at the peak.

4:26 This lasted into January of 2018, ETH went from $8 to $1,400.

4:34 So this was incredible growth.

4:35 This was 175X in the first cycle.

4:39 So remember that cycle one, 175X from trough to peak cycle two.

4:46 This was 2021.

4:47 We saw a 61X gain, so that's 6,000%.

4:53 The trough there, we hit this in December 2018, $80.

4:57 By November 2021, that turned out to be the top, we were at 4,878.

5:03 So 61X in cycle two, 175X cycle one, 61X cycle two.

5:10 Let's talk about the most recent cycle that ended in 2025.

5:15 So there, we trough down to in June 2022, $881, and then our peak for this

5:23 cycle was 4,953.

5:26 So barely an all-time high eking in from the previous cycle.

5:30 So the gain this cycle wasn't 175X, wasn't 61X, it was 5.6X, all right?

5:39 A much smaller number.

5:42 And so I think a lot of investors for in crypto and for ETH right now are

5:46 asking this question.

5:48 Was this just a skipped cycle for ETH, or is this now the new normal?

5:53 Like that level of performance is kind of anemic compared to previous cycles.

5:58 Is that just where we are now, or do you think for whatever reason this cycle

6:03 just was not

6:03 favorable to ETH and it'll come back stronger next time around?

6:07 Yeah, and I think this is the big question, and that's a very interesting kind

6:11 of just

6:11 framing of just kind of those diminishing returns of the last, that's three

6:16 cycles.

6:17 Maybe if you just zoom out to like the max on that chart, right, and we kind of

6:21 look

6:21 at this a little bit from a broader perspective, and what you can see here is a

6:27 rising sort

6:28 of base, which is a good sign, and I think a healthy chart, you can see these

6:34 massive

6:34 moves that we made in the first two cycles.

6:38 And then, in this last cycle, we've mostly just actually sort of traded within

6:43 the range

6:43 that was established back in 2021, 2022, which is interesting.

6:50 This is unique for ETH, and if you look at a lot of crypto charts out there,

6:56 this one's

6:57 unique, right?

6:58 It used to look like most of the other ones where you had the first sort of

7:02 Bitcoin big

7:03 move back in 2017, and then you had 21, but most of the assets out there, like

7:10 you see

7:11 like either they just never come back, or they have another big third peak with

7:16 ETH.

7:16 We didn't get either of those.

7:17 We sort of stayed in the middle zone, so I think this can be bullish from the

7:22 perspective

7:23 that it's essentially just been kind of like sort of turning over the holder

7:29 base for about

7:30 five years or so now, and you can kind of look at this.

7:34 You can go back and say it may be a bit barely sort of got to a new all-time

7:39 high this year,

7:41 and it's trading at a level right now that it was similarly trading at four or

7:46 five years

7:47 ago.

7:48 And you could ask yourself, is that bullish or bearish, and I think the way I

7:53 think about

7:54 it is I kind of go back to 2021-2022 and think about just where Ethereum was on

8:02 its roadmap

8:03 and where it was in terms of fundamentals and users and all the network effects

8:09 , all

8:09 the tooling, all the developers, all of the stable coins, and just kind of like

8:13 everything

8:13 that's kind of playing out on Ethereum.

8:16 And we've seen all of those metrics improve, but we haven't seen it reflected

8:20 in the price

8:21 action, and I think the thing that this really comes back to and why ETH may be

8:26 underperformed

8:27 a little bit in this past cycle is just the nature of the L2 roadmap.

8:34 And this was something that we had something called, you may recall, Ryan, the

8:39 Ethereum

8:40 investment framework that we used to put out on a quarterly basis.

8:45 And we were sort of essentially trying to lay out the roadmap for ETH and then

8:48 how that

8:49 would impact the sort of economics of the chain over time.

8:53 And we accurately forecasted that the L2 roadmap would create this sort of

8:59 diminishing value

9:01 capture at the L1 level.

9:04 But what we did not sort of forecast correctly was that the market perception

9:10 of that and

9:11 it's just the fact that basically what I think happened was Ethereum has sort

9:18 of disrupted

9:19 itself so that it could grow and so that we could scale via these L2s.

9:24 And in doing so, they sort of like made the product better for the L2 customer,

9:30 but sort

9:31 of hurt themselves in the near term.

9:35 And the big question is like, is this whole vision of the L2 roadmap, we can

9:40 kind of get

9:40 into how that's sort of evolving a little bit, is this ultimately going to play

9:45 out?

9:46 And is Robinhood and Coinbase and traditional finance, are they going to come

9:50 in, build

9:51 L2s that actually have real apps and tons of users on these things that

9:56 ultimately there's

9:57 actually a little bit more of a value share.

10:00 It's more of a win-win with some value accrual going down to the L1, which then

10:05 impacts

10:06 staking yields, some of those sort of ways that people think about valuing the

10:09 network

10:10 and just like the overall economic health of the network, that didn't play out.

10:15 I think that played a major role in sort of the, I would say, period of

10:19 somewhat disillusionment

10:20 that Ethereum went through during this past bull market.

10:25 So then is your explanation basically that the roadmap decisions that Ethereum

10:30 made essentially

10:31 caused ETH price to skip a cycle?

10:36 Now, whether the next cycle will be back to being more bullish again or not,

10:42 whether

10:42 it will continue to underperform and be anemic relative to previous cycles,

10:47 maybe you have

10:48 to underwrite that on your own.

10:50 But this cycle, the 2025 cycle, was it a case of just L2s not scaling in the

10:59 way that Ethereum

11:00 thought the fees not occurring back to ETH or the asset, the market looking at

11:07 the L2

11:08 roadmap and saying, okay, this might be okay for individual L2 chains, but it's

11:14 not necessarily

11:16 good for ETH or the asset.

11:18 I mean, because that strategy has more recently pivoted and it started pivoting

11:24 in 2025 and

11:25 it has accelerated into 2026.

11:28 And it does seem like the direction of the Ethereum roadmap is much more about

11:34 renewed

11:34 focus on scaling the L1 and looking at the L2 roadmap and saying, okay, that

11:41 was okay.

11:42 It was a little bit of a side quest.

11:45 Mistakes were made, lessons are learned, were learned.

11:48 What Ethereum really needs to focus on is DeFi on the L1 and scaling up the L1

11:54 as the

11:54 L2 scale in parallel.

11:56 I mean, I guess you could make the case that those lessons have been learned,

12:01 that the

12:02 L2 roadmap was the reason that ETH did not perform this cycle.

12:08 But now they haven't, ETH has an opportunity to overperform if it actually gets

12:13 back on

12:14 track and implements the L1 scaling roadmap.

12:18 Is that the story here?

12:19 If you kind of squint, can you see that?

12:21 I can see that, yes, I absolutely can.

12:26 I was bullish on this L2 roadmap when this was really starting to come out.

12:30 So if you go back to 2022, 2023 period, this is when optimism was coming out,

12:36 rolling out,

12:38 that was an exciting project at the time.

12:40 I know bankless had a lot of coverage on that at the time.

12:43 Arbitrum came out thereafter, both of these launched tokens that actually

12:47 performed decently

12:49 well actually in a bear market.

12:51 So there was excitement around the L2s.

12:54 And I think the vision that we all had was that most of the apps would actually

13:00 deploy

13:01 on these L2s, which we saw most of the most popular DeFi apps deploy on the L2s

13:07 .

13:07 But we haven't really seen any new app.

13:11 We've just kind of seen Uniswap deploy on L2 and other popular DeFi stuff just

13:17 deploy

13:18 on L2s.

13:19 We haven't seen a breakout app that comes via this new product, essentially

13:24 that Ethereum

13:26 has built.

13:27 And I think that's been an issue.

13:28 And then the other issue is, for this to really work from a user experience,

13:34 these L2s need

13:35 to be fused together and you need this bridging experience.

13:38 I think there's a UX issue that still we've been promised that this would all

13:43 fuse together

13:44 and it would be seamless.

13:45 That hasn't really happened yet.

13:47 And I think these are the things that have, while this is playing out, then you

13:53 have Solana

13:54 sort of making a comeback that sort of captures the sort of more speculative

13:58 nature of the crypto

13:59 markets that Ethereum did have, I would say in the 2021 cycle.

14:03 Some of that had gone to Solana just because of the fees on Ethereum.

14:06 But I think it's just really a combination of all these things.

14:10 And so I think when you kind of zoom out, you could look at that chart and say,

14:13 well,

14:14 wait a minute, this is like a really rough period for Ethereum.

14:18 I mean, we've gone through, learned all these lessons and, you know, this is a

14:21 big, this

14:21 is a big, you know, global asset.

14:24 And it's, you know, that chart looks pretty good to me, to be honest, given all

14:30 of this.

14:31 And so it has the, because that chart still held up like that, it looks like we

14:35 're establishing

14:36 another lower high.

14:38 Like to me, it does have the potential to potentially outperform Bitcoin, you

14:43 know, next cycle,

14:44 it underperformed Bitcoin, right?

14:46 This, this cycle.

14:47 And if you're a crypto investor, like that's your benchmark.

14:50 And so every dollar that you're putting into anything other than Bitcoin, like

14:55 we spend

14:55 a lot of time, you know, thinking about that and which assets, you know, have

14:59 the highest

14:59 probability of outperforming, you know, we're still sort of kind of like coming

15:03 to our conclusions

15:04 about whether that, whether ETH has that potential here.

15:08 But what one of the big learnings from last cycle was that it's getting harder

15:12 and harder

15:12 to outperform Bitcoin, especially for things that are not newer assets that are

15:17 coming out

15:17 and launching during, during these bull market cycles.

15:20 So yeah, a bit of a ramble, but I think, you know, this is, this is, this is an

15:25 interesting

15:26 story.

15:27 We're going to get into some of the data.

15:28 We'll get into some of the fair value metrics.

15:29 But I think it's an interesting setup, you do have, you know, like I said, you

15:34 have Coinbase,

15:34 you have Robin and you have major builders here and it comes down to, are we

15:38 going to

15:38 see traditional finance or we're going to see just this kind of feed, this

15:43 merger of

15:44 tradified crypto here in this, in this maybe in this bear market as we get, you

15:49 know, regulatory

15:50 clarity.

15:51 So let's talk about another point of confusion, I think, for the market

15:55 investors, at least

15:56 I'm, I'm somewhat confused going into this, which is ironic given, I think that

16:01 's been

16:01 it almost a Genesis question for bankless is, how do we value these crypto

16:06 assets like

16:07 Bitcoin and, and Ether and on down?

16:10 There are many different ways you can use to, to value Ether the asset.

16:15 This is a website I have pulled up called ethval.com.

16:18 It's pretty good.

16:19 It's a composite of all of the different ways that have been popular and have

16:23 some data

16:23 behind them.

16:24 But if you were to group these different valuation mechanisms for Ether the

16:28 asset, and this is

16:29 independent of how successful Ethereum is as a network or the roadmap, like

16:34 what we're

16:35 talking about here concretely is, all right, based on the success of the

16:39 Ethereum network,

16:40 how should investors think about Ether the asset in terms of what its fair

16:44 market value

16:45 prices, what, what the fundamentals are.

16:48 And there's roughly as far as I can tell like three different categories of

16:52 metrics.

16:52 One is you just think of Ether as a monetary asset like Bitcoin or like gold.

17:00 It's a sovereign, a non sovereign doesn't have an issuer store of value has a

17:04 scarcity

17:05 story, a little bit different than Bitcoin in terms of its scarcity story, but

17:09 still

17:09 a scarcity story and kind of number goes up because people believe it's a store

17:15 of value

17:16 asset independent of fiat based systems.

17:20 And so it's an alternative to that.

17:21 It's one set of metrics that you can use to value this thing.

17:25 Another set on the other end of the spectrum is the Ethereum network does

17:30 generate some

17:31 fees.

17:32 And you can almost think of this as like tax revenue of the network.

17:36 And it is able to collect some of these fees as say taxes and pass them on to

17:42 those that

17:43 are staking ETH the asset.

17:45 And so there's cash flows actually attached to that.

17:47 And so you get price to sales ratios and you get fee yield type ratios on that

17:54 or you can

17:55 look at kind of how much cash flows back to stakers and value it based on

17:59 almost like

18:00 a tech stock inequity, some sort of discounted cash flow table.

18:05 There's a third class too, which is you just think of this as a network, an

18:09 economy and

18:10 a network, and you think about the value on top of that network, all of the

18:16 assets and

18:16 stablecoins and tokens, and you create some sort of total value locked multiple

18:22 and you

18:23 look at historically, you know, how the price is reacted to a certain amount of

18:28 value on

18:28 the platform, then you just say, well, if that value goes up, then ETH price

18:32 should

18:32 increase.

18:33 There's all of these Metcalf Law type network mechanisms where you're

18:37 essentially saying

18:38 that ETH, the asset should be some sort of portion of the Ethereum economy and

18:43 all of

18:44 the assets on top of Ethereum.

18:46 Those are like three different categories of how you value ETH.

18:50 What's fascinating here, Mike, is when you look at the variance of these

18:55 categories,

18:56 if you took something like price to sales ratio based on the last 365 days of L

19:01 1 fee

19:02 revenue and Blob fee revenue, either the asset would be worth about $2 right

19:08 now, okay?

19:10 On the other end of the spectrum, if you look at kind of ecosystem settlement,

19:15 use some

19:15 of these network metrics and use some of the store value type metrics.

19:19 This is one MV equals PQ.

19:22 This was a valuation metric kind of popular in the 2017 era.

19:26 ETH would be worth on that side $24,000.

19:28 All right, look at this disparity in two different metrics.

19:32 You have $2 versus $24,000.

19:36 Now we have an ETH price point right now.

19:39 The market has deemed that ETH is worth $2K right now.

19:43 What that tells me is the market is just trying to figure out how the hell to

19:48 actually value

19:49 this asset.

19:51 Is it a tech stock?

19:53 Is it some sort of network valuation economy that you're plugging for ETH price

20:00 ?

20:00 Is it a store of value?

20:02 Maybe the price just reflects that the market is uncertain in terms of which

20:06 metrics actually

20:07 apply to this thing.

20:09 How do you see ETH or the asset and which metrics in your mind should apply to

20:14 its valuation?

20:15 Yeah, this is great, Ryan.

20:18 What's interesting here as well is when you look at that price of sale ratio,

20:22 if you go

20:22 back to 2021, when Ethereum was printing cash, this was when the L1, there were

20:29 no L2s.

20:30 Every user was on the L1 and you had massive congestion.

20:33 We all knew that that wasn't really sustainable, but the actual story at that

20:37 time was cash

20:38 flow.

20:39 You could do a DCF and the numbers actually sort of checked out.

20:43 It was a totally different story.

20:45 This has evolved quite a bit over the years and it's due to the technical

20:50 upgrades and

20:51 just the way that Ethereum has laid out its scaling roadmap.

20:56 My view on this, and we've tried to cover this topic a few different times, we

21:00 wrote

21:01 a piece last year called How to Value an L1 and people can check that out.

21:06 We focus more on, we think the way to think about L1s is as nation-states and

21:12 the token

21:13 is the currency.

21:15 Basically, the nation-state provides the infrastructure, how a country provides

21:21 a set

21:22 of rules and property rights and things like this and the blockchain handles

21:25 that and then

21:26 it charges attacks to all of the users and the users have to use that currency

21:30 to access

21:31 services.

21:32 I think it functions very similar to that.

21:34 I like that model.

21:35 Now, what is the most important valuation metric?

21:40 I think that it comes back to a few different things.

21:45 I look at token economics as one thing that I think is very important.

21:49 Ethereum has very strong token economics even with its REV and its cash flow

21:55 being down.

21:56 It's still less inflationary actually right now than Bitcoin is.

22:00 It has strong token economics.

22:02 The other thing you can look at is the TVL, GDP, what's the value of the

22:07 economy on top

22:08 of this thing?

22:10 When you think about East valuation right now in terms of market value, let me

22:15 just pull

22:16 it up real quick, about $250 billion, ETH has about $180 billion of stablecoins

22:23 on it.

22:24 If you factor in the rest of the TVL, it's certainly much higher than the

22:30 market cap.

22:31 That's another way.

22:32 Typically, we've seen fair value when the market cap converges to the

22:37 combination of

22:39 stablecoins and other TBL assets.

22:42 To me, it's a combination of the cash flow story.

22:45 There is cash flow here that is different from Bitcoin, the token economics

22:49 story, and

22:49 then the fundamental story.

22:51 I try to roll all of that up and then focus on what I think is the most

22:55 important thing

22:56 in the context of this idea of a nation-state and why do certain currencies

23:01 have more strength

23:02 than others in a nation-state model is because of capital flows, the rule of

23:07 law and monetary

23:09 policy, all of these things.

23:10 That's a holistic way to think about this.

23:13 Traditionally, ETH has just been valued relative to Bitcoin, I think, for the

23:18 most part and

23:19 the market hasn't really landed on what is the key valuation criteria just yet.

23:26 It's a reacting to a world that feels anything but stable.

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25:24 I do think you're onto something with this nation-state metaphor, really, and

25:27 if you

25:27 kind of take that throughout history, there have been different nation-states

25:31 that have

25:32 been blessed with the exorbitant privilege of having other nation-states

25:37 actually wanting

25:38 to use their currency as a store of value and also as a medium of exchange.

25:44 I mean, the US, most notably right now, has that exorbitant privilege.

25:48 And so one wonders which blockchains might be blessed with that and which ones

25:54 aren't.

25:54 Certainly, it seems like Bitcoin has been blessed with that in the past.

25:58 Will it be the only one?

25:59 Will there be more?

26:01 These are kind of the outstanding questions, but still, the nation-state

26:05 metaphor, analog

26:06 valuation framework does fit the mold for that case too, even in the store of

26:14 value case.

26:15 Yeah, I think so.

26:18 I've had the view that as a crypto analyst and as somebody who's constantly

26:23 looking at

26:24 data and trying to figure out what's driving the prices of these things, what

26:27 should drive

26:28 the prices of these things, I've had the view that we're eventually going to

26:31 sort of land

26:32 on some new standards in terms of how this is all going to work.

26:37 We are still pre-regulation.

26:39 I think the crypto markets have been around for a little while, but we are

26:42 still pre-regulation.

26:43 So I think once we get the Clarity Act through, hopefully that is the

26:48 legislation that we

26:50 want, once that gets through, and this just becomes much more open to

26:55 traditional finance

26:56 and how they're going to start to integrate, I think we will start to land on

27:00 some frameworks.

27:01 And I expect them to come from crypto-native analysts and not traditional

27:06 finance analysts.

27:08 And so I think they're going to adopt some of the thinking that we've already

27:12 established.

27:13 And we'll see it's, be patient.

27:15 I've been saying this for years now, and it has a really plant played out.

27:20 But if these networks continue to be adopted and continue to produce

27:24 interesting data and

27:25 interesting fundamentals, we will absolutely find a way and the market will

27:30 absolutely,

27:30 I think, converge on a sort of standard way to think about them.

27:34 Well, let's take a look at some of those fundamentals and those numbers that at

27:38 least you look at.

27:39 So one of them is Ethereum revenue right now.

27:43 So what is that showing us?

27:46 Yeah, I mean, this is the story.

27:48 This is the L2 roadmap.

27:49 It's just sort of visualizing the sort of impact on the economics of the L2

27:53 roadmap.

27:54 And where the chart really kind of drops off is like early 2024.

27:59 That was right after we introduced like blobs, right?

28:02 And so it made it really cheap for L2s to anchor data onto Ethereum.

28:09 Really Ethereum's revenue declined significantly because of that and also just

28:14 because there

28:15 is a decent subset of Ethereum L1 users that now use the L2.

28:19 And so you're not getting those kind of L1 base fees.

28:22 And this is really kind of, I think, you know, visualizing it.

28:25 This is the L2 rent paid down to L1.

28:28 And that chart shows like it's really just the upgrade of Ethereum improving

28:33 itself, which

28:34 to me is Ethereum disrupting itself is really what happened here.

28:37 And so that's not like, you know, uncommon.

28:41 Like this is something that like software, you see this.

28:44 And the question is, and we saw we saw for years Amazon essentially, you know,

28:49 operate

28:50 at losses because they wanted to keep their costs really low and they want to

28:54 just scale

28:55 their network effects.

28:56 And that worked out very well for Amazon.

28:58 And so what we're seeing right now in Ethereum is they've sort of like

29:01 disrupted themselves.

29:03 They've improved their product for their end customer.

29:05 But it's not really a great trade off in terms of like the value accrual that

29:10 Ethereum

29:11 is capturing.

29:12 I do think there are ways that they can, you know, potentially capture more of

29:15 that value

29:15 in the future.

29:17 But I think this is a story that the charts kind of just like visualize what is

29:20 played

29:21 out.

29:22 What's interesting about this at some level is yes, fees have collapsed, right?

29:28 I guess the sunny side of that or the optimistic take on that is even the spite

29:33 of fees collapsing

29:35 ETH is still valued over to 2K, you know what I mean?

29:39 So there's something else that the market sees in here in the price of Ether

29:45 that is

29:45 not being reflected in fees.

29:48 And it just is the case that like it could come to pass that fees never, ever

29:55 recover

29:56 to the 2022 highs.

29:59 And the reason for that is if Ethereum continues to scale block space, both L2

30:05 block space and

30:06 also L1 block space, as it intends to as part of its roadmap, then you get less

30:12 scarcity

30:13 because you have more supply and unless demand outstrips the new supply that

30:19 you're creating,

30:21 fees will stay low in perpetuity.

30:23 But at some level, isn't that the success scenario?

30:26 Isn't that what the Ethereum roadmap is supposed to do?

30:28 It's supposed to scale cheap transactions, so you get in a case where if you're

30:32 looking

30:33 just at the fee revenue, it's not telling the full story for this asset.

30:39 And I mean, that's similar for other chains too, like Bitcoin barely generates

30:43 any fees

30:43 and look at its valuation.

30:46 So that's why it's complicated to just like, I don't know, look at the fees

30:51 story and make

30:51 any judgments here.

30:53 Yeah, I would agree with all that and I think this is where, you know, we

30:57 talked about Ethereum

30:58 having 180 billion of stable coins and the network is worth about 250 or 230 or

31:04 so billion

31:05 right now.

31:06 So there are other ways to think about fundamentals separate from just the fees

31:11 .

31:11 The way that sort of that decline in fees is impacting like the staking yields

31:17 is we're

31:18 just seeing that blue where we've got a chart here of the staking yield of ETH

31:21 over time

31:22 going back to late 2022 and we had a pretty healthy sort of combination of new

31:29 issuance,

31:30 which is network inflation that's compensating the validators in combination

31:37 with some MEV

31:38 that's adding to the staking yield.

31:40 And then you had priority fees that were all combining to produce a nice yield

31:45 that was

31:46 over 5% or so back in 2022 and as these network upgrades have come through, we

31:52 're just seeing

31:53 less of the sort of like, you know, fees that are adding to the e-staking yield

32:00 .

32:00 It's just issuance now?

32:01 It's like 90 percent.

32:02 Yeah.

32:03 We didn't see the far right of that chart.

32:04 It's mostly just pink.

32:05 So it's like almost all issue.

32:06 It's about 90 over 90 percent is just coming from the, you know, Ethereum

32:10 essentially minting

32:12 new ETH paying out the validators with that.

32:14 The key point on this, and I think this is a very important thing for Ethereum,

32:19 is even

32:19 with these low fees, and this is really important, but the inflation, they're

32:24 still able, even

32:25 though, yes, that is inflation, it's still like less than 1 percent.

32:29 So you're able to compensate the entire supply side of your network, you know,

32:35 do they want

32:36 their yields to be over 3 percent?

32:38 Yes, I think so.

32:39 But I don't see, you know, the validators like leaving the network because of

32:43 this.

32:43 And so you're able...

32:44 You're saying the numbers here, isn't it?

32:45 And I recall you throwing some numbers out, but annualized issuance for

32:49 Ethereum in terms

32:50 of new ETH that is minted every year, isn't that something like 0.6 or

32:54 something percent?

32:56 Yeah.

32:57 0.6 percent.

32:58 Right now, it's about 0.83 percent annualized with around the same inflation

33:03 rate as Bitcoin.

33:05 And the reason that that's really important is you still have a, you know, you

33:08 're basically

33:08 not diluting, you know, there's a small amount of dilution coming to ETH

33:12 holders that are

33:13 not staking, but you're able to do that even when the network isn't producing a

33:18 ton of,

33:19 you know, it's just sort of pure organic economics.

33:23 Most other networks that have very low fee capture that are, you know, paying

33:27 the supply

33:28 side primarily with inflation have high inflation rates, right?

33:32 This is the unique thing about Ethereum.

33:34 And so ETH can be viewed as a store of value and have strong token economics,

33:38 even when

33:39 the fee capture is at these depressed levels.

33:42 I think that's really important.

33:43 What do the dex volumes teach you about Ethereum?

33:47 So, you know, this is something that in terms of valuation, it doesn't really

33:52 come in too

33:53 much on Ethereum.

33:54 So what the way I think about this is velocity, like, absolutely matters and

33:59 just like the

34:00 speed that assets are moving on chain and that can drive a lot of the, you know

34:06 , network

34:06 economics.

34:07 And that's what that's really the most important KPI on Solana.

34:11 I think what is interesting here is that dex volumes are down about 56% or so

34:18 Solana was

34:18 doing significantly higher dex volumes than Ethereum during the bull market.

34:24 Ethereum is actually doing more now.

34:26 So almost twice as many, this is just the Ethereum L1, but it's doing almost

34:30 twice as

34:31 much dex volume now in the bear market.

34:34 So it's kind of like the tide has come out a little bit.

34:37 We're sort of starting to see, you know, kind of what's left.

34:40 And Ethereum has a strong foundation, I think, I think is the kind of the key

34:43 takeaway.

34:44 But this metric is more important on Solana in terms of how it generates, you

34:49 know, velocity

34:50 on chain, which leads to MEV, which leads to, you know, base fees and staking

34:55 yields on

34:56 Solana.

34:57 I think we've made the point before that Ethereum is a bit more of a slow DeFi

35:01 chain.

35:02 And that comes with a high, higher quality base of assets for certain that tend

35:07 to perform

35:07 better in the bear market, but whereas Solana is kind of high velocity types of

35:14 DeFi and

35:15 use cases.

35:16 So, there's some separation in the design of these networks as well.

35:20 This is a metric that has been pretty much up and to the right and looks like

35:24 it continues

35:25 to grow, which is Ethereum's stablecoin supply.

35:28 And you just mentioned we hit over 180 billion.

35:33 And that's all on Ethereum.

35:34 Ethereum has kind of the bulk of stablecoin supply in crypto.

35:38 Is this bullish?

35:39 I mean, this has not yet been reflected in price.

35:43 You know, maybe you could argue it is when the genius bill went through.

35:47 If you've got close to kind of all-time highs, I believe, but do you think this

35:52 has an impact

35:53 on the price?

35:54 It's, you know, it's been the big narrative.

35:56 I think when Tom Lee got involved with Ethereum last summer, so this is one of

36:00 the big things

36:01 that he was sort of pointing to.

36:03 Ethereum has roughly 60% of the total stablecoin supply, stablecoins look like

36:08 they're sort

36:09 of the-

36:10 But Chad GPT using Chad GPT, yeah, I tell you that's the killer use case for

36:15 crypto, which

36:16 I think is all, you know, fair.

36:19 And yeah, Ethereum is the home for this.

36:22 USDT is the most popular stablecoin on Ethereum.

36:25 It's about 53.6% of the supply.

36:28 You know, what I'm interested in seeing how this sort of evolves is after we

36:33 get the Clarity

36:34 Act, you know, are we going to see more trad-fi stablecoins start to come out?

36:39 Are we aware of those going to be deployed?

36:42 My guess is they probably will be deployed on Ethereum, and this is really

36:45 going to boost

36:46 out of-

36:47 I think of like the-

36:48 If you think of like sort of the-

36:49 Just the foundation, almost like when you think about a traditional company,

36:53 you think

36:54 about the book value of the company, like what are just like the actual hard

36:59 value of

36:59 all the assets of the company, and when you remove the premium.

37:02 Like, I sort of think of stablecoins apply as like the hard value and maybe a

37:07 few other

37:08 things involving TBL as sort of like the base of like what the economy is on

37:14 top of Ethereum.

37:15 And so yeah, I think this is a strong sign that it's only down, you know, 2.7%

37:20 even though

37:20 the price is down, you know, closer to 60% or so.

37:23 So I think this is bullish and it'll be interesting to see how it expands from

37:28 here.

37:28 It's also interesting to see during the bear market, right?

37:31 So you said the fair market value of ETH, the total, you know, market cap of

37:38 ETH is

37:39 something like $250 billion as we're recording.

37:42 This number is $180 billion.

37:45 So what happens if the value of ETH drops below the value of all stablecoins on

37:51 top

37:51 of it?

37:52 Does that signify under valuation or does that not matter at all?

37:56 I guess the market's still trying to figure that out.

38:00 Let's talk about the fair value metrics that you use, which are a little bit

38:04 different

38:05 than the valuation metrics that we talked about earlier.

38:09 And this is I think your favorite way of assessing the fair market value of

38:14 Bitcoin, the asset,

38:16 which is to use things like realized value, MVRV, percent supply and profit.

38:22 What are the whales doing?

38:24 Are they buying?

38:26 Are they selling?

38:27 At what stage in the cycle are we?

38:29 These are kind of the cycle metrics that you've become famous for on the DeFi

38:34 report.

38:35 So what are ETH's cycle metrics right now?

38:39 And what are they telling us about where ETH actually is in this bear cycle?

38:45 Yeah.

38:46 So pretty interesting here.

38:47 We've got the last two bear markets.

38:50 These are, like you said, these are kind of the cycle metrics.

38:53 This is more market value to realize values, e-scores, supply and profit,

38:57 things like this.

38:59 I probably should have added in here a few of the other metrics related to TVL,

39:03 stable

39:04 coins, things like that.

39:05 Maybe we'll tweet that out after the show.

39:08 But what I see here is we're very close to where we bought them.

39:15 A lot of these KPIs are very close to where we bought them in the last bear

39:18 market.

39:19 So market value to realize value, that measures the realized value as a proxy

39:25 or sort of the

39:25 cost basis of the network.

39:29 This is something we pay a little more attention to with Bitcoin just because

39:32 Bitcoin is more

39:33 of a store of value network.

39:35 It's less utility.

39:36 And so these numbers are not as precise, I think, because of the way that

39:40 Ethereum moves

39:41 on chain, because the way that these metrics are calculated is it's just

39:48 basically the

39:49 price of the token.

39:50 So if somebody sent you some ETH and they did that at $3,000 and you never made

39:54 another

39:55 transaction after that, then that wallet's cost basis would be at that $3,000

40:00 price

40:00 pay.

40:01 It does this for every transfer in and out of these wallets.

40:05 So right now it looks like, I say that, but these metrics have been actually

40:09 very, very

40:10 accurate and provided a lot of signal for crypto analysts.

40:15 So we bought them in terms of MVR at 0.7.

40:18 So actually below one, Bitcoin is at about 1.26 right now on this metric.

40:24 We're at 0.84 right now.

40:25 So you're clearly in what I would say is like the, you know, what looks like a

40:29 cycle

40:30 low zone.

40:31 You know, we don't know if it's going to go lower and I'm mostly, you know,

40:34 paying attention

40:35 to that 2022 column here because ETH was a very, you know, immature asset back

40:40 in 2018.

40:41 When we look at the Z score, again, close, you know, we're not below where we

40:45 went to

40:46 in 2022, but we're pretty close.

40:49 When we look at the supply and percentage of supply and profit, you know, this

40:53 is pretty

40:53 interesting.

40:54 We're actually below only about 39.4%.

40:57 This is the entire network that we're factoring in here, you know, only about

41:03 39% of ETH holders

41:04 looks like they're in profit right now.

41:06 And that got, you know, that's actually lower than we went to in 2022.

41:10 ETH BTC ratio is just, you know, a way to, you know, relative to where Bitcoin

41:15 is trading.

41:17 What's interesting about this one is ETH established, it's like cycle low for

41:23 its ETH

41:24 BTC ratio in April of 2025, which is really so this isn't a 2022 KPI load.

41:31 This one specifically happened in April 2025.

41:34 Yeah, very, you know, kind of odd to see that happen.

41:39 And we have got a chart here.

41:41 We can go to after after we finish on this one, but that, you know, it looked

41:46 like ETH

41:46 was probably at its most oversold level ever, actually, in April of 2025, we

41:51 can get there.

41:52 But then we look at the, you know, 200-week moving averages as a metric that's

41:56 worked

41:56 quite well for Bitcoin, ETH has also traded below its 200-week moving average

42:03 in the

42:03 last cycle.

42:04 And it's actually currently there right now.

42:06 It's actually at a lower level than it was at the 2022 low.

42:11 So why don't we flip over to that next chart to give a little bit of a view of

42:16 that.

42:16 Yeah, here it is.

42:18 So this is just showing the, you know, the 200-week moving average.

42:22 And the distance that that pink line gets below the blue is giving you a pretty

42:28 good

42:28 indicator of historically, you know, kind of where we could be at here in terms

42:33 of like

42:33 the big cycle.

42:35 And we can see that, you know, we actually went to the lowest point ever below

42:40 that blue

42:41 line in April 2025.

42:44 And then that's basically what kicked off the rod that right after that was

42:47 when I think

42:48 Tom Lee came on and everything kind of changed for a brief moment there, but we

42:53 never really,

42:54 you know, pushed to like durable new all-time highs.

42:57 So we're right now back at what I would say is pretty clearly fair value.

43:02 And the way I think of these things is like, you know, it's possible for

43:05 something like

43:06 ETH that it could actually just bottom before Bitcoin bottoms that happened in

43:12 June of 2022.

43:15 That's kind of rare.

43:16 Most crypto assets actually bottom, like after Bitcoin or around the same time.

43:21 So it's possible that Bitcoin that ETH has actually bottomed, like that's

43:24 actually possible.

43:25 It's also possible that we're going to see more weakness or Bitcoin here at

43:30 some point

43:30 in 2026, potential weakness in the traditional markets.

43:36 And you know, that could bleed into to ETH as well.

43:40 But I would say from like a very high level, like it's it's in like a fair,

43:42 certainly in

43:43 a fair value territory when we look at these types of metrics.

43:47 And also if we look at sort of like the GDP type metrics and the TVL and, you

43:53 know, just

43:54 kind of the base of assets on the chain from that perspective, I would say it's

43:58 also in

43:59 a fair value zone.

44:00 So I know your base case is that Bitcoin will have further weakness this year

44:04 and it could

44:04 take some some months to play out.

44:06 But if we just go back to kind of the fair value KPIs for ETH or the asset,

44:12 could you

44:13 translate this into like a price for Ether or like a, you know, a time range,

44:18 if maybe

44:19 this plays out as you're expecting.

44:22 So it seems like we are in actually the fair market value zone for Ether, what

44:27 you would

44:28 call the fair market value, not necessarily deep value yet.

44:32 And we have this conversation on the TDR podcast last week, the difference for

44:36 Bitcoin between

44:38 fair value, which is kind of it's in that early stage right now versus deep

44:43 value.

44:44 And the returns can be much more drastic to the positive if you're buying in

44:50 the deep

44:51 value territory.

44:52 So what's kind of from a price range perspective and a timeline perspective,

44:57 your rough estimate

44:58 of how long will be in fair value and then what does deep value look like for

45:03 Ether?

45:03 Yeah, I think what's, what was interesting last in the last cycle is that ETH

45:09 actually

45:10 went all the way down, I believe to about 900 or so in the early in that that

45:14 fair market.

45:15 So May, June period.

45:18 And that was the low, that was the low that established for the entire cycle.

45:22 And then, you know, when we had the FTX, you know, capitulation actually never

45:27 went, went

45:27 back down to those, those lows, that's something I'm, you know, keeping in mind

45:31 that that's

45:32 possible, that that could happen in terms of like, just, you know, how this can

45:37 go and

45:37 the timelines and things like that.

45:40 You know, I think bear markets have historically taken about a year to play out

45:44 and that's kind

45:44 of my base case for this cycle.

45:49 And you know, I've kind of, you know, if you zoom out and just think about, you

45:52 know, things

45:52 that are happening on like the macro side of things and, you know, it's hard to

45:57 see like

45:57 just get impulse of liquidity coming from either fiscal monetary policy.

46:03 We now have oil rates that are, that are, you know, rising and potentially like

46:08 kind

46:08 of a, you know, stagflationary setup here where it looks like inflation,

46:13 expectations

46:14 are rising, growth, expectations are slowing, like this is not, you know,

46:20 really sort of

46:21 bullish setup, I would say for for crypto.

46:25 It could lead to a situation where the Fed has to actually do some, you know,

46:29 emergency

46:30 rate cuts.

46:31 And that would, that would to me would be a good setup for, for ETH, for

46:35 Bitcoin, for

46:36 crypto largely.

46:37 But that's kind of where I'm at.

46:39 I'm, you know, we were risk off back in September, October period.

46:44 We are now risk on, but I would say not like full on risk on we've sort of

46:48 tried to allocate

46:51 in these fair value zones in line with what I think the probabilities are for

46:55 potential,

46:55 you know, deeper value opportunities.

46:57 Yeah.

46:58 And I know you've primarily in the risk on mode, you've just allocated to

47:01 Bitcoin so far and

47:03 are looking to move kind of down the stack a little bit later in the cycle as

47:06 you expect

47:07 this to play out.

47:08 But roughly in my head, if I'm looking at these numbers, I'm kind of swagging

47:11 it, right?

47:11 We're at right now at 2K, we're in sort of the fair market value zone, maybe

47:16 the top

47:16 end of that for, for Ether.

47:19 Deep value, I don't know, knock another 25% off or something like that, 1500

47:23 and below,

47:24 is that starting to look more like deep value for Michael NATO and the TDR for

47:30 Ether?

47:31 I think so.

47:32 I think we went down to like 1700 or so in April.

47:36 Like if we get there, that probably is a, you know, deep value zone, you know,

47:43 we'll

47:44 see.

47:45 I mean, we've, we've, we've come down quite a bit.

47:46 But I think we came down to 1850 or so and now we're sort of bouncing.

47:49 It feels like we're in the part of the cycle where we've come into the fair

47:53 value.

47:53 We, we got there fairly quickly, we're about five months into this fair market

47:57 and it feels

47:58 to me like we're kind of at the part of the cycle where we're just going to

48:00 kind of like

48:01 shop around, you know, we're seeing some turmoil with, you know, traditional

48:06 markets with geopolitics

48:07 and like we'll see how this kind of gets resolved, but it feels like we're in

48:11 the zone

48:11 where we chop around, you know, try to find a bottom.

48:16 And most of the work that we're doing right now is just try to assess that.

48:19 And then we're, you know, essentially doing a lot of fundamental research to

48:23 try to decide

48:24 which assets that we want to pair up in our crypto portfolio, which ones do we

48:29 have the

48:29 highest conviction that they will outperform Bitcoin in, in the next sort of

48:35 expansion

48:35 phase.

48:36 World is a fully on chain exchange for spot, perps and lending, all running

48:40 through a universal

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48:48 With World, the chain is the venue.

48:50 Only possible on mega ETH, World hosts the entire business logic of a spot

48:53 order book,

48:54 a perps exchange and margin lending inside of a single on chain platform.

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49:01 sovereignty

49:01 of DeFi with the scalability and liquidity of C5.

49:04 The secret sauce is the universal margin system, on World, every position nets

49:08 out against

49:08 every other, because World leverages mega ETH scale to have the total

49:11 computational

49:12 assurances over the full state of user positions.

49:15 This lets World treat your portfolio as one single account, allowing your yield

49:19 bearing

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49:28 This is how real markets work in tradfi, and thanks to mega ETH scalability, it

49:31 is

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49:43 World is, as they say, better than sex.

49:45 Make more money at world.inc, or read the docs at docs.world.inc.

49:49 Some exciting news.

49:50 We are launching a new podcast to help people figure out the crypto cycle, how

49:54 to navigate

49:55 it.

49:56 The best crypto cycle investor I know, his name is Michael NATO, he runs the De

49:58 Fi report.

49:59 This is the guy that sent me a sell alert before the 10/10 price drop happened.

50:04 This cycle analysis has been absolutely on point, I've been following him for

50:07 years,

50:08 and this year we started recording weekly podcast episodes.

50:11 Each one we get into his portfolio, what he's holding, the market structure,

50:15 entry targets,

50:16 fair market value of Bitcoin and Ether, and where we are in the cycle, there's

50:19 new episodes

50:20 that are released every Wednesday, they're 30 minutes, they're short, they're

50:23 punchy.

50:24 I think this crypto cycle is harder to navigate than most, so let's do it

50:27 together.

50:28 Go subscribe to this podcast, search the DeFi report, wherever you get your

50:31 podcast, YouTube,

50:32 Apple, Spotify, we'll find a link in the show notes.

50:35 There's a new episode waiting for you now.

50:37 Okay, so let's talk about that maybe as we start to bring this to a close mic.

50:41 So, of course, an asset being in the fair market value zone is necessary, but

50:47 not the

50:48 only requirement for getting inside of the TDR portfolio and your portfolio

50:53 because what

50:54 you're really looking for is assets that will outperform Bitcoin.

50:59 And I guess the question is if Ether is in the fair market value zone, I know

51:03 you already

51:04 have some, but this is carry forward from last cycle on the TDR portfolio.

51:09 You know, what does Ether have to prove to you in order to get in the portfolio

51:15 this

51:15 cycle?

51:16 Obviously, it has to be in the fair market value or deep value zone for you to

51:20 be a buyer,

51:21 but there's all sorts of other crypto assets that you could buy or other assets

51:25 in general.

51:26 What are you looking to see specifically for ETH to re-underwrite it as a asset

51:32 that you

51:33 want to include into the early bull side of the cycle that starts to play out

51:39 in 2027?

51:41 Yeah, I think, well, I think ETH looks healthy to me.

51:45 It was, I was growing more concerned, I would say, last year and just seeing

51:50 the reaction

51:51 and a lot changed.

51:53 I think Ethereum addressed a lot of these concerns that were going on.

51:57 So I think it's in a healthy place.

51:59 There's a little bit more of a renewed focus on the L1 and scaling the L1.

52:03 So I think that's, it's in a good spot.

52:06 For me as an investor, what I have to look at is, okay, what are the other

52:11 options here?

52:12 What are the other things that I could buy?

52:15 And to me, it just comes down to like, do I have more confidence in those

52:20 things from

52:21 a fundamental perspective, from a valuation perspective, from a token economic

52:26 perspective

52:27 and buybacks and things that lead on trying to sort of analyze each asset

52:31 separately and

52:32 then decide which ones do I have the highest conviction are going to outperform

52:38 .

52:38 And so there are lots of assets that you can put into a portfolio on confidence

52:43 that ETH

52:43 is going to do well and have an expansion in the next cycle.

52:49 And I would hope that it'll definitely get past those 5K all-time high.

52:56 But the question is, do you have more conviction in that and ETH potentially

53:01 outperforming

53:02 Bitcoin in this cycle versus there's probably five to 10 other assets that we

53:08 're looking

53:09 at that we haven't made any decisions on, but we cover these in the watch list

53:12 on a

53:12 weekly basis.

53:14 And that's kind of where we're at.

53:16 Look and subscribe if they want to find out what we ultimately add to the

53:20 portfolio.

53:21 I can't wait to see where you end up with at this cycle.

53:25 So let's wrap it here.

53:27 And for Banklist listeners, Mike and I do this every month.

53:30 We put this on the Banklist podcast actually on a weekly basis.

53:34 Every Wednesday, we publish a new podcast on the TDR feed.

53:39 And so if you're not subscribed to that, go take a moment to go subscribe to

53:42 that.

53:42 You'd find it in Spotify.

53:43 You can find it in YouTube.

53:45 Do a search.

53:46 There's a link in the show notes and you'll get access to that.

53:48 Actually, we're going to be recording an episode here shortly.

53:51 So there might be something live for you on that feed right now.

53:55 What's the episode that's coming out tomorrow, Mike?

53:57 Yeah.

53:58 So one of the nice things, I think I kind of hinted at it a little bit at the

54:01 beginning

54:01 of this show is I view the volatility of the crypto asset class as like a

54:07 feature.

54:08 Not just because you can sort of trade and get in and out of things.

54:12 We're more of a long-term investor, so we trade these cycles.

54:16 And what that allows us to do is kind of re-underwrite these thesis every four

54:20 years

54:20 or so.

54:21 So we're actually doing like a health check on the Bitcoin network this week.

54:25 We're just going to go through all the things that we think are most important,

54:28 just like

54:29 the health of the Bitcoin network to help re-underwrite our sort of like, you

54:33 know, five to 10-year

54:35 outlook for Bitcoin.

54:36 So that's drops tomorrow and we'll talk about it on the DeFi report podcast as

54:40 well.

54:40 I can't wait to have that conversation.

54:42 I don't know if you're going to be covering like quantum or security budget and

54:45 some of

54:45 those longer-term concerns, but we'll talk about it there.

54:49 Also, I believe that the TDR Pro, you're offering one month free to bank list

54:54 listeners right

54:55 now.

54:56 I am a proud, happy TDR Pro member, really inexpensive, the cost of a Netflix

55:00 subscription.

55:01 If you want to try that for a month, you can do that, but it gives you access

55:04 to Mike's

55:04 portfolio in the TDR.

55:06 He is right now, I believe, 40% crypto, 60% cash.

55:11 So starting to move into that risk-on territory, you get research reports every

55:16 week, you get

55:17 data dashboards, you get the watch list.

55:20 Mike, what else do subscribers get when they get the TDR Pro?

55:23 Yeah, they get...

55:25 So we do these cycle awareness reports.

55:27 We actually just released one of those last week that goes through a lot of the

55:31 ...

55:31 Some of the data that we went through for ETH, we went through that a lot of it

55:34 for Bitcoin

55:34 last week.

55:35 So cycle awareness reports, market structure reports, on-chain data, and I

55:39 think that

55:39 really helps anchor people to just like where are we at in the cycle, and then

55:43 we do the

55:44 watch list reports every Friday.

55:46 Those are specific asset level reports where we go through the fundamentals and

55:50 we're just

55:51 like...

55:52 We've initiated coverage on those assets because we may include them in our TDR

55:55 Pro

55:56 active portfolio when we think it's time to be more risk-on.

56:00 So it's kind of like following investors' journal, to some degree, I would say

56:05 to TDR

56:06 Pro.

56:07 Yeah, one of my favorite things is when I get the fat pitch email alerts from

56:10 Mike indicating

56:10 that he's just bought back in because that's always a bullish sign for me.

56:14 So you guys can access that in a link in the show notes.

56:18 We'll leave you with this.

56:19 Of course, none of this has been financial advice.

56:21 You know, crypto is risky.

56:22 You could lose what you put in, but we are headed west.

56:24 This is the frontier.

56:25 It's not for everyone, but we're glad you're with us on the bankless journey.

56:29 Thanks a lot.

56:30 [Music]

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